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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The ECB left its rates unchanged: the deposit rate remained at -0.4% and the interest one at 0.0%. Moreover, the US dollar strengthened amid upbeat data. The Initial Jobless Claims came in green. Housing Starts showed strong figures as well. Investors’ attention now turns to Trump's inauguration which will take place on Friday.

Current situation

The downward trajectory lost its legs just below 1.0650 when sellers met a solid barrier which rejected the pair upwards. The euro reversed majority of its losses on Thursday. The spot broke 1.0650 ahead of the European session opening and headed towards 1.0700. However, the upward impetus soon faded, the recovery stalled above 1.0650. A fresh selling interest dragged the pair downwards. The spot broke 1.0650 and tested 1.0600 at the US session opening. The EUR/USD pair presented a neutral-to-bullish stance during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We became bearish regarding the pair now. A break below 1.0650 would increase a negative signal and risk further easing of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0600, en route to 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

Housing Price Balance foe December came in worse than expecting slowing down the pound recovery on Thursday. The pound weakened further vs. the US dollar after the upbeat US data. We expect a number of UK's Retail Sales releases today which are expected with positive figures.

Current situation

The pound strengthened further on Thursday, sending the GBP/USD to its recent highs at 1.2400. The cable was able to reverse some of its losses amid broad dollar's weakness. Having found a local bottom at 1.2250 the spot reversed its direction and rallied upwards breaking 1.2300 in the European session. After passing the level the pair continued moving north targeting at 1.2400. Buying interest faded in the North American session. The price faced the downward rejection and turned lower. The price continued developing well between the 200 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI left the neutral area and entered overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The pound remained under the risk of falling deeper down. The 1.2400 hurdle coupled with the 200-EMA limited the pound further advance. A downtrend will start as soon, as the spot drops below the support level 1.2300. Further easing to 1.2200 is not ruled out. A break above 1.2400 will advance the spot to 1.2450.



Yen

General overview

J. Yellen’s remarks coupled with strong data boosted the US dollar demand. The strong labor market data and Housing Starts release supported the greenback on Friday. All eyes are on Trump's inauguration.

Current situation

The pair remained in a short-term downward channel staying around its upper limit on Thursday. Buyers lost their momentum after touching 115.00. The US dollar was in a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions. Traders struggled with the hurdle to resume their advance. The level, however, turned out to be a solid obstacle to break. The US dollar got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the level. A fresh bout of buying interest supported the U.S. dollar. The major attacked the 115.00 hurdle with fresh vigour during the NY hours. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe that a break through 115.00 will put on hold bears’ plans. The potential buyers’ target is 116.00.



NZD/USD

General overview

New Zealand Business PMI posted positive figures while Building Permits came in red. Moreover, the kiwi as a commodity currency was supported by oil prices positive dynamics. The recent US data weighed on the NZD as well.

Current situation

The Asian recovery lost its steam after testing the level 0.7200. The hurdle appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After touching the level the NZD rolled back in the Asian session and remained below the resistance during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart the spot hovered above its moving averages on Thursday. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

Inability to retake 0.7200 may reverse the market. A sharp breakout below 0.7150 could spark a further easing towards 0.7100 in the coming days.



XAU/USD

General overview

The broad US dollar strengthening weighed on the precious metal. Besides a strong dollar gold prices softened amid the upbeat US data and the ECB decision to keep its rates unchanged.

Current situation

Gold prices remained under pressure on Thursday amid a strong dollar. The pair bounced off the 1200 psychological mark and remained around the handle during the day. The metal continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. We would be selling gold only if the price drops below 1200. A firm break below 1200 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 1190 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

The US oil inventory draw gave a temporally support for oil prices. The market will be focused on Oil Rig Count in the coming sessions.

Current situation

Oil prices remained in red figures after Wednesday's bearish acceleration. Brent a little changed on the day and remained prone to more weakness on Thursday. The benchmark stayed neutral around 54.50 dollars per barrel flirting with the level during the European session. Oil price stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 100-EMA was flat while the 50-EMA headed lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

Near-term technical studies are in full bearish setup. A daily close below 53.50 dollars per barrel will pave way for further near-term downslide towards the very important 50.00 psychological mark.



DAX

General overview

European bourses edged higher on Thursday after the ECB's decision to leave the rates unchanged. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while the financial sector shares moved broadly higher. Investors kept digesting Janet Yellen's comments. According to Yellen the Fed may raise the rates quickly this year.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open. However, the upmove lacked momentum immediately after the jump. The price softened filling the gap in the European session. Sellers broke 11600 and tried to push the price lower during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the index broke the 50-EMA upwards. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral territory close to the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, DAX30 needs to rise above 11600. However, as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11500.



NASDAQ

General overview

The US stocks opened higher amid the U.S strong data. Investors focused on key companies (IBM and American Express) earnings reports which will report after the bell. However, traders preferred wait and see mode ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday.

Current situation

The index traded in a tight range on Thursday. The price was sandwiched between 5060 and 5040 during the day. The benchmark started the day at the open limit of the band and moved down to its lower limit during the course of the European trades. The price stayed above the moving averages in the 1 hour chat. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50-EMA was flat while the 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

Trading recommendations

The market seems fairly balanced. The index feels comfortably in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction. Meanwhile we prefer to stay out of trades until we get a clear picture.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The European common currency got under selling pressure in the morning trades on Wednesday amid negative Business Climate release in Germany. A demand for the euro emerged in the European session helping the major to reverse its losses climbing to fresh highs.

Current situation

Bears tried to take control over the market on Wednesday. After a night consolidation sellers made an attempt to move the price lower at the beginning of the European session. The price headed towards 1.0700 first, however, the selling interest faded soon. The pair found fresh bids above 1.0700 and extended its corrective rally on risk-on trades. The common currency rallied and reversed all Tuesday’s losses by the noon. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI stayed within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will place buy orders if the EURAUD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.0750. The pair might extend its gains towards 1.0800 afterwards. Meanwhile, inability to climb above 1.07500 risks a decline back to 1.0700.



Pound

General overview

The UK Industrial Trends Survey - Orders grew for January providing support for the cable. Investors kept weighing up M.Carney's remarks. The immediate focus now remains on the UK GDP for 4Q. Traders expect a light decline in the GDP.

Current situation

The GBP/USD pair kept its rangebound stance unchanged the first part of Wednesday. The spot traded in a tight range flirting with 1.2500 during the day. A fresh buying impetus boosted the GBP/USD pair to 1.2600 after London's opening. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

Strategically, we preserve bearish outlook and see risks of a move down towards 1.2400 over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. However, the spot needs to break the 1.2600 level first to maintain its bullishness.



Yen

General overview

Protectionist rhetoric from the White House kept weighing on the dollar. Exports and Merchandise Trade Balance in Japan showed upbeat data supporting the national currency.

Current situation

USD/JPY remained in bearish trend. Tuesday’s recovery stalled when the price met a barrier at 114.00. Buyers failed to retake the level which rejected the USD/JPY pair downwards. The spot rolled back and stopped a few pips below the hurdle. The pair was confined to a well limited range below 114.00 during the European hours and continued its slide ahead of the NY session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA in the early trades. The US dollar failed to reclaim the 50-EMA and bounced off it. The benchmark remained below its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA stayed flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the coming sessions. Sellers may drive the pair to 113.00 first, en route to 112.50.



USD/CAD

General overview

Trump’s plans to revive Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines weighed on the Canadian dollar. However, the Loonie recovered some ground later the day in the light of weaker oil prices.

Current situation

The US dollar remained rather unchanged against its Canadian peer. After a sharp sell-off sellers took a breath consolidating their gains. The price hovered above 1.3120 in the morning after being rejected in the early Asian trades. A fresh buying interest emerged in the mid-European session pushing the US dollar upwards. An attempt to raise rates failed and a downward pressure returned the spot to 1.3120 in the mid-European session. The CAD broke 100 and 50-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair stayed below the moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bearish, for a fall towards 1.3050 support area. However, the USD/CAD is oversold and we do not rule out a minor correction towards 1.32.



XAU/USD

General overview

Uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda and lack of US data softened the US dollar. Gold took an advantage of weaker dollar and strengthened. Markets now eagerly await the US Housing Price Index report.

Current situation

Gold prices turned negative after the opening. The XAU/USD pair came under some profit-taking pressure on Wednesday. Bears seized control and pushed the price downwards. The metal pushed away from the 1210 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and headed downwards. European traders continued dragging gold futures downwards and reached 1200 in the mid-European session. However, the level limited sellers’ advance rejecting the gold spot. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA pointed higher, while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral territory and entered oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The uptrend is not over yet. The buying interest remains while 1195 pivot holds. We expect gold prices to resume their growth. A break above 1210 will suggest its further strengthening towards 1220 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged lower ahead of the EIA crude stockpiles report.

Current situation

Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears on Wednesday. Brent failed to sustain a minor-recovery above 55.50 hurdle and extended losses below the last. The price remained in a tight range during the Asian session. Traders made an attempt to lower the price in the early European session but succeeded in the second one. The price broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages remained flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the benchmark will go to 54.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 53.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

General overview

European stocks traded in green on Wednesday. The latest earnings reports supported stocks. The growth was boosted by Logitech and Banco Santander upbeat figures.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open. The benchmark maintained its bid tone afterwards. Buyers pushed the price through 11700 in the early European trades. DAX extended its rally in the late European hours approaching to 11800. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and 50 EMAs upwards. The benchmark moved away from the moving averages which kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bullish for now. If the benchmark stays above 11700 DAX will aim at 11800.



NASDAQ


General overview

Wall Street futures hit record highs on Wednesday. The post-election rally seems to have returned boosted by President Trump's push for pro-growth policies.

Current situation

The index had a positive day on Wednesday. A brief consolidation phase was over by the European trades opening. European traders pushed the price higher which rallied towards 5120. The upward impetus faded about the mark ahead of the NY session opening. NASDAQ continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs accelerated their advance north in the same chart. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 5100 opened the way to the 5140 hurdle.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro ignored positive GDP in Spain and softened on Monday. Markets eye the upcoming ECB meeting and Consumer Price Index which is expected in green.

Current situation


The EUR/USD gapped higher at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.0700 to 1.0740 in the early Asian trades. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session. Bulls failed to extend their gains and stepped back giving the way to sellers. Bears seized control and pushed the spot back to 1.0700 where the spot traded almost unchanged in the mid-European session. A fresh selling interest emerged before NY opening. The EUR/USD pair made a good break lower and reached 1.0650. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the .support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral area and moved south.

Trading recommendations


The 1.0750 resistance needs to be retested before the EUR/USD pair might rally towards 1.8000. However, the spot has all chances to turn bearish now. Should the price fixate below 1.0650 the way towards 1.0550 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Monday. All eyes are on the Bank of England on Wednesday.

Current situation

The GBP/USD gapped higher at the start of the new week. The spot jumped up to 1.2600 where the price met a strong barrier. The major bounced off the hurdle, dropped back towards the opening price сlosing the bullish opening gap. The spot pressured the 1.2500 level in the European session, but failed to retake the handle. The pound hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was neutral-bearish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture favors the downside. Should the 1.2500 level break down it will determine further direction of the GBPUSD pair towards 1.2400.



Yen

General overview

The US treasury bonds growth helped the US dollar to reverse some losses. Besides, weak Retail Trades in Japan weakened the national currency.

Current situation

A strong two day rally was capped above 115.00. The US dollar gapped lower vs. its Japanese peer at open on Monday. The greenback jumped from 115.00 to 114.85 and extended its losses afterwards. After finding fresh bids around 114.23 the price turned around and rallied back to the opening price. The spot approached 115.00 in the early European trades but retreated immediately after the level test. The USD/JPY pair stayed a few pips below the level ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained around the 100-EMA after testing the moving. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50 pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Bullish near-term studies support further upside sentiment. A firm break above 115.00 handle would open 116.00.



USD/CAD

General overview

Investors’ attention now turns to GDP which will be published on Wednesday. Meanwhile oil prices decline weighed on the commodity-linked currency – Lonnie. Moreover, Quebec mosque terrorist attack on Sunday weighed a bit on the Canadian Dollar.

Current situation

The greenback extended its near-term bullish momentum on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours the US dollar moved upwards. The pair accelerated its growth in early Europe trades heading towards 1.3190. However, the upside momentum was halted at 1.3158 where the major remained ahead of NA opening. According to the 4 hours chart the spot stayed below its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the support level 1.3120. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.3090 mark. En route to 1.3050.



XAU/USD

General overview

Precious metal is in demand in the light of Trump’s moves. The US President banned travelers from seven Muslim countries from entering the USA.

Current situation

Friday’s recovery stalled at 1195 dollars per ounce. After reaching the mark the precious metal reversed its direction and moved lower. Gold prices touched the level 1190 at the start of European trades and stayed around the level ahead of the North American session open. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and stayed below the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA and the 200-EMA were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and moved south.

Trading recommendations

A move below 1190 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. The next level to focus on is 1180 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Rising US production continued weighing on oil prices. Besides, a growing number of the US rigs added some downbeat tone in the commodity.

Current situation

Oil prices remained in its familiar range on Monday. The price stayed range bound to higher between 55.50 and 55.15 during the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke its moving averages upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were bearish while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Short term bias indicates selling interest. We expect a firm break below 55.50 handle which could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 54.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

General overview

World stocks decline dragged European stocks lower. Market participants are concerned about D.Trump's moves as the US President.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the weekly open. The price gapped through 11800 and maintained its bearish tone afterwards. The bears tightened grip and sent the rate back towards 11700 handle in the early European trades. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The immediate risk is still clearly on the downside but we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 11700 before turning bearish. Our first profit target will be 11600.



S&P500

General overview

US stocks traded lower on Monday following the uncertainty after the recent Trump’s moves over the external policy. Traders are concerned that the future Trump’s policy may impact both the US and the World economies.

Current situation

S&P500 gapped lower at the open. The price jumped to 2280 which appeared to be a solid barrier. After touching the level the benchmark had to retreat and rolled back to 2285 almost filling the night gap. According to the 4 hours chart the benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The price eyes strong support at 2280 handle loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 2270 area.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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